Avian Flu
Is Bird Flu Still a Threat?

Bird flu virus exists in nature, in birds, naturally, and it circulates among birds all the time. It is rare, indeed, when a strain of bird flu, like H5N1, jumps from birds to man and causes disease.

Photo courtesy of Tim Parkinson
http://www.flickr.com/photos/timparkinson

But, that is exactly what happened. In 1997, we started to see a form of H5N1 bird influenza that was especially deadly for birds and that infected a few people. The people who became ill at that time had handled sick birds or contaminated feces, and they did not pass the flu virus on to other people.

Evolution of Bird Flu

Bird Flu Patients in Jacarta
Photo courtesy of Ryan Schultz

Bird flu has become a fact of life in parts of Asia, parts of Europe, Africa, Egypt and Southeast Asia, and the avian influenza is now able to infect small groups of people, person to person. Including those who have not had contact with sick or dead birds.

Often the virus is spread among families and sometimes to caregivers. Despite this, avian flu is not easily spread, person to person.

The virus continues to be deadly, with at least 60% of people who get sick from it – dying.

Bird Flu Pandemic?

A pandemic, by definition, infects tons of people—millions. And the pandemic flu virus spreads quickly and easily from person to person and across regions throughout the world. So far, the avian influenza, H5N1, has not been able to spread beyond a few people. It has certain characteristics that make it difficult to do so.

But...and this is the part that keeps virologists awake at night...viruses change. They change a lot and they love to change! And they combine with each other. And sometimes they pick up nasty characteristics from each other.

The process doesn't always work toward positive results! Viruses tend to adapt to make things easier for themselves—like transmission (ability to spread from person to person).

A Pandemic Nightmare

• H5N1 - Bird flu. This flu virus has proven itself to be highly virulent or deadly. It kills birds and it kills people. And often there is nothing that can be done to save a person who has bird flu.

• H1N1 - Swine flu . This virus, while relatively mild compared to H5N1, has proven to be a fast mover. It infects far more people, faster, than seasonal viruses. In just over a month, it has travelled and infected people in several regions of the world. Its strongest feature is its transmissibility!

• H3N2> - Seasonal flu virus . Currently circulating seasonal virus has become resistant to flu medicines . That means that, if you get the seasonal flu during your flu season, prescription medicines Tamiflu or Relenza won't help you feel better or lessen the effects of the flu.

While each of the above flu viruses has its own nasty characteristic, none of them, by itself, poses a monumental threat.

The real threat to humanity is the possibility that two or more of the above viruses will combine, take the worst or most threatening characteristics of each and emerge as a new monster flu virus - the worst possible scenario!

While this sounds like something out of a science fiction movie, the threat is real. Viruses love to change and adapt, and adaptation may just make the virus more threatening to people.

If the swine flu virus that is currently circulating, combines with either the avian flu or the seasonal flu above, and picks up the wrong genetic characteristics, we could have a flu pandemic that would rival even the Spanish Flu 1918 pandemic or other pandemics in history.

We could see a virus emerge that, moves swiftly from person to person and country to country, is resistant to antiviral medicines, and kills millions of people.

That, my friends, is what keeps scientists awake at night. It's what Margaret Chan of the WHO is gently warning us about, and it's what governments across the world are preparing to face!

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