Flu Pandemic – What is it?
A flu pandemic is more severe than a flu epidemic. Pandemics only occur several times a century, while an epidemic can occur more often.
During a normal seasonal flu season, you can see an epidemic develop. Did you know that an epidemic can become a pandemic?An epidemic occurs when there are more cases of a particular disease than the medical community would normally expect. During an epidemic, the disease spreads rapidly and is widespread in one or more communities. An epidemic can be a localized event. As of May 2009, the
H1N1 flu virus
or Swine Flu was technically a flu epidemic. In June 2009, it was declared to be a pandemic by the WHO.
What is a Pandemic?
The
WHO (World Health Organization)
and the CDC (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) classify a flu virus as a flu pandemic when it meets certain requirements:- Novelty - The virus is new and has not been seen before. The H1N1 flu virus or
swine flu
virus is composed of 3 parts swine flu, one part bird or
avian flu
and one part human flu. Scientists have not seen this before – hence, it is novel.
- Humans have NO immunity - Because they have not been exposed to the virus previously, they have not developed any antibodies against it.
- Young healthy people are at risk - Unlike
seasonal flu
, a flu pandemic influenza attacks and kills, specifically, the young and healthy.
- An influenza pandemic is not seasonal - It may occur at a time of year that is not usual for flu in a particular country. Not only can it begin at any time of the year, it can start at any place in the world.
- Pandemic flu spreads fast - It travels from region to region quickly--more quickly than seasonal flu.
- Pandemic flu is more deadly - Large numbers of people are hospitalized and many more than during a seasonal flu oubreak—will die.
- Symptoms are severe
- Pandemic flu symptoms are often more severe than seasonal flu. - Pandemics are cyclical - Scientists have noticed that pandemics occur in cycles. For example, there were 3 pandemics in the 20th century (
pandemics in history
), fairly evenly spaced, in years, from each other. Pandemics usually occur about 30 years apart. We have not seen a pandemic for 40 years, and scientists have told us that we are now overdue for a pandemic!
What to Expect in a Pandemic
The impact of a pandemic on society can be tremendous. If the current h1n1 flu becomes a full-fledged pandemic, coupled with the current economic crisis, the world will be greatly affected. Here are some of the results that have been predicted:- Health systems will quickly be overwhelmed - This is true for any pandemic. Hospitals run out of beds because there are so many sick people, and health care workers get sick.
Hospital care
may not be available when you or your family members get sick.
- High number of deaths - more people sick coupled with a higher percentage of those who need hospital care and eventually die. There won't be room for everyone in the hospitals, so many will need to have
in home care
.
- Vaccine may be developed - however, it takes 3-6 months for scientists to develop one. If the virus changes dramatically, they will have to start over.
- Resistance to drugs - Currently h1n1 is responding to Tamiflu and Relenza, two
flu medicines
There is concern in the medical community, however, that the h1n1 virus may change its genetic character and develop resistance to the drugs—like last year's seasonal flu, which developed resistance to Tamiflu, world-wide.
- Home Quarantine
- Many country's government pandemic flu plans call for quarantines. They may be enacted for several days or for months! Schools and public buildings may be closed. There may be restrictions on
travel
. - Economic Impact – A lot depends on how long and how severe a pandemic is. The economic impact could be huge, though, simply because we already have world-wide economic problems.
How Long Does an Influenza Pandemic Last?
Flu pandemics don't just come and go—and then they are done. Usually they come in waves. Scientists predict that the next pandemic will have at least two waves of illness, maybe three or four.If we go back to the
1918 pandemic
, we find that there were several waves. The first wave occurred in the late spring—just like the swine flu occurred in April and May of 2009. The first wave of the 1918 influenza pandemic was very mild, much like the current h1n1 flu virus. However, in the fall of that year, the Spanish flu came back with a vengeance! It was deadly, and it spread fast! People just didn't know what happened to them. It happened so fast! A flu pandemic “wave” can last from several weeks to a few months, and that will probably vary from one community to another and from one country to another. The WHO tells us that the flu pandemic is expected to spread to the rest of the world within several weeks or months.
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