The Next Superbug?



Scientists Fear Combo of Bird Flu, Swine Flu

The next superbug to emerge could very well be a mix of avian flu and swine flu, scientists are whispering among themselves. Several factors make this VERY possible – and, if this occurs, the new super bug could start our next true pandemic!



Photo of H1N1 Swine Flu Virus, possibly our next superbug.

Photo of H1N1 swine flu virus
Courtesy of CDC


What Makes Swine Flu a Big Deal?

We've all been wondering what the big hooplah has been about. The World Health Organization raised its pandemic level to 6, getting people across the globe upset (about a swine flu pandemic), and mobilized for the next big flu pandemic . The number of people who have become ill so far has not been that significant (but getting larger), and very few people have died.

So, what is it that scientists know that we don't? What is the BIG DEAL?

The concern is that bird flu, which kills over 60% of its victims and the mild H1N1 swine flu , which has killed very few people, but spreads like wildfire with a handshake, will combine to make a superbug flu which will kill lots of people and spread rapidly.

A Super Pandemic in the Making?

Virologists have been following these flu viruses , watching for genetic changes. Here are some of the characteristics that they look for:

  • Virulence - How deadly is a virus and how sick do people get from it? Does the virus cause a cytokine storm?

    Bird flu kills more than 60% of its victims. Ebola is another example of a deadly virus superbug. While deadly, neither of these viruses spread easily from person to person.

  • Transmission rate - H1N1 swine flu is highly transmissible. It spreads very easily from person to person. You can get it from shaking hands and then touching your eyes, nose or mouth—or when someone sneezes in the same room.

  • Ability to mutate - Dr. Robert Webster, a leading virologist for 40 years, who works at St. Jude's Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, TN has been following an ancestor of the current H1N1 virus since it first emerged on a pig farm in North Carolina in 1998. "This particular virus seems to have this unique ability to pick up other genes," said the leading virologist.

    Dr. Webster worries that H1N1 will combine with bird flu: "My great worry is that when this H1N1 virus gets into the epicenters for H5N1 in Indonesia, Egypt and China, we may have real problems," he told The Associated Press. "We have to watch what's going on very diligently now."

  • Ability to jump species - Already having genetic portions of avian flu, swine flu and human flu, H1N1 swine flu could easily jump from humans to birds or pigs—gain new genes and characteristics--and then jump back to humans. In fact, a farm worker recently returned from Mexico to Alberta and infected 220 pigs. This was a sign that worried virologists!



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How Real is the Danger?

Experts have watching the bird flu closely for several years – concerned that it could mutate into a superbug that spreads easily among people.

The past three flu pandemics -- the 1918 Spanish flu , the 1957-58 Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu of 1968-69 -- were all linked to birds, and some scientists believe that the 1918 pandemic flu had swine genes, as well.

One flu expert, Malik Peiris, from Hong Kong University, believes that the more immediate worry is that swine flu will mix with regular seasonal flu viruses , as flu season begins in the Southern Hemisphere. It is unclear what such a combination would produce.

And the WHO Director-General Margaret Chan told a meeting of Asia's top health officials in Bangkok a week ago, “Do not drop the ball in monitoring H5N1, We have no idea how Avian Flu H5N1 will behave under the pressure of a pandemic."

Are All Scientists in Agreement?

Scientists are never totally in agreement. That is what makes predicting the future of this H1N1 swine flu virus (and possible superbug) so unpredictable!

Michael Osterholm is an infectious disease specialist at the University of Minnesota. He acknowledges that experts are discussing the various possibilities but he has not seen any specific evidence to cause it to happen. He still believes that anything is possible:

"Everything with influenza is a huge guessing game because Mother Nature holds all the rules, and we don't even know what they are, so anything's possible," Osterholm said. "We don't have any evidence that this particular reassortment is that much more likely to pick up H5N1 than any other reassortment out there."

But Dr. Webster holds fast to his beliefs, saying that underestimating the swine flu virus would be a huge mistake. "This H1N1 hasn't been overblown. It's a puppy, it's an infant, and it's growing," he said. "This virus has got the whole human population in the world to breed in -- it's just happened. What we have to do is to watch it, and it may become a wimp and disappear, or it may become nasty."

And that's what we all should do. Keep an eye on what is happening and be ready for anything. The swine flu H1N1 may turn out to be a fizzle, a big nothing. Or it could become our next superbug, a nightmare for humanity.

The next few months will likely determine the direction of H1N1. By the fall of 2009, we should know if the seasonal flu is just that—another seasonal flu with few fatalities. Or a monster superbug, causing a pandemic that will go down in history. A deadly flu, easily passed from person to person and perhaps one that doesn't respond to medications.

Pray that the bird flu, swine flu and the current seasonal flu (with its resistance to viral medications) do NOT combine and come back next fall to haunt us!




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