Swine Flu - Pandemic Flu

There are a number of characteristics that make this flu influenza virus different from the regular seasonal flu viruses that we see every year. Let's look at some of them to see if there is a flu pandemic potential with H1N1 :

• Transmissibility - This just measures how fast a virus spreads. Scientists use a formula to measure transmissibility. H1N1 is moving fast. In just a few weeks, it has infected well over 10,000 people and has spread across several continents.

  And, H1N1 is just an infant—seasonal viruses usually take several months to really get going. For example, if flu season starts in early November, the highest number of cases is likely to occur in January and February. The H1N1 influenza virus has a high transmissibility factor.

• Age of victims - With normal seasonal flu , the people who are most at risk are older people (over 65)and infants. For seasonal flu, 90% of the people who die are over 65. People with health conditions are also more vulnerable.

  Pandemics are different. Younger, healthy people are affected. All pandemics have caused a higher percentage of deaths among younger, healthier people.

  During the 1918 pandemic, half of the deaths were people, aged 20-40. More than 95% of the deaths were people younger than 65.

  According to current CDC statistics, the median age for swine flu cases is 19 years old. In fact, 87% of people who have been infected with swine flu are younger than 65.

• New virus - Pandemics occur when a new, never seen before virus, appears and starts to infect people. In 1918 the virus was a bird virus. In 2009, the new virus is composed of virus parts from swine, bird and human viruses. H1N1 swine flu virus is a new, novel virus, never seen before by scientists.

  Because our bodies have never seen a novel virus before, humans have NO immunity to it.

• Severity of illness - Not all pandemics have very severe illness associated with them. Some pandemics in history had milder flu viruses. However, if enough people get sick, more people than usual will die, statistically - just because of the high numbers.

• Changes in the virus - Pandemic viruses show an unusual ability to change themselves and adapt. Often this means that they pick up nasty new traits.

• Not the right time for influenza - Pandemic flu viruses appear at odd times. For example, in 1918 there was a mild strain of flu virus that appeared in late spring – after the normal seasonal flu should have been over. Just like the H1N1 flu virus in 2009.

  In 1918 the pandemic flu virus disappeared over the summer, but it returned in the fall—this time in a very deadly form.

• Pandemic “waves” - Pandemics usually have “waves” of illness. This means that the virus tends to circle the globe two or three times before it weakens and loses its pandemic threat.

  In 1918 there were 3 waves of illness. The first in late spring was quite mild, the second was the real killer – it sickened millions and killed many. The third wave was bad, but not nearly as bad as the second. And then it was over.

  We have yet to see if swine flu will come in waves. Some scientists believe that it will. Others believe that it will never leave (over the summer), because it has acquired the ability to survive and thrive at the higher summer temperatures (41 degrees C).

So, the question is: How bad will the swine flu H1N1 pandemic be? It started out as an epidemic - with higher than expected numbers of people sick.

In June 2009, the WHO raised the pandemic alert level to 6. We have met the criteria of having the swine flu virus spread to other WHO regions, and it is being passed from person to person. When the World Health Organization raised the pandemic phase , they also designated the severity (June 2009) as being moderate.

But, that is no reason for you to panic. What it means is that this is the time for you to take some action - to prepare so that your family is ready for anything from quarantine in your home to living without electricity for a few weeks - to taking care of a really sick person with in home care.

What are the Pandemic Alert Levels?

Why was the Pandemic Level Raised?

What is a Superbug?

Return to Virus Information

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